{"id":9664,"date":"2023-02-20T22:16:03","date_gmt":"2023-02-20T20:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/learn.thndr.app\/?p=9664"},"modified":"2024-07-18T10:42:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T08:42:10","slug":"treasuries-is-lending-the-government-the-safe-investment-youve-been-looking-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/learn\/treasuries-is-lending-the-government-the-safe-investment-youve-been-looking-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Treasuries\u2014 Is lending the government the safe investment you\u2019ve been looking for?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"9664\" class=\"elementor elementor-9664\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-27c201b0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default rt-parallax-bg-no\" data-id=\"27c201b0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7eb4a87d\" data-id=\"7eb4a87d\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7f2d4a09 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7f2d4a09\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">What are Treasuries?<\/span><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Think of treasuries as IOUs [I owe you], or promise-to-pay notes from the government. The government borrows money from people, just like you might borrow money from a friend &#8211; and in return, they promise to pay you back with interest on a specific date (aka the maturity date of the treasury). You can think of this like the \u2018expiry date\u2019 on the loan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Why do governments borrow?<\/span><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">People usually take loans so they can buy a car or a house. The government borrows money to fund things like short term deficits, roads, public schools, and defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">What are the different kinds of treasuries?\u00a0<\/span><\/h4><p><b>T-bills<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> are <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">short-term loans<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the government that have to be paid back plus interest. This is paid back in a year or less (either 3, 6, 9, or 12 months), and they\u2019re usually used to finance deficits.<\/span><\/p><p><b>T-bonds<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> are <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">long-term loans<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the government that have to be paid back in over 1 year\u2014they usually use them to finance big projects. In addition to getting your money back, you also get a fixed payment every 6 months or 1 year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Why invest in treasuries?\u00a0<\/span><\/h3><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">They\u2019re *almost* low risk<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Since they\u2019re basically loans to the government, treasuries are considered very low risk. The government is considered a reliable borrower with a stable economy, and the ability to tax its citizens in order to generate revenues. In other words\u2014its extremely unlikely that a government won\u2019t be able to pay its lenders back<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">They allow for short-term investing<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bills are considered very short term investment options, as well as second-hand treasuries (which we\u2019ll get into later). This is very useful if you know you will need your money soon, yet you\u2019d also like to earn some interest on it in the meantime<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">They can give regular payments<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bonds work by offering you regular payments. This is a great option if you\u2019re looking to invest your money in something that will also give you a regular income stream. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This does not apply to T-bills.<\/span><\/i><\/p><h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How does the government offer them?<\/span><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In Egypt, the Ministry of Finance issues treasuries through the Central Bank (CBE). The CBE holds auctions for T-bills and T-bonds every week. This auction is done <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbe.org.eg\/en\/Auctions\/Pages\/AuctionsEGPTBills.aspx\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">online<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and here&#8217;s how it works:<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Step 1: Announcement<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The CBE announces the details of the upcoming auction, including the date, amount of money they want to collect, and deadlines. Eg: they want to collect EGP 10 billion, by 25\/02\/23, and will pay it back on 25\/02\/24.<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Step 2: Bidding<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Banks place their bids stating how much they want to lend the government and what interest rate they want in return. Eg: a bank can offer EGP 1 billion, and ask for 23% yield (aka the return on that loan).<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Step 3: Issuance<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When bidding is complete, the CBE reviews all the bids, by looking at the rates that each bank has submitted. Using this information, they will determine<\/span><b> the range<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> of bids they want to accept. This means that some of the bidders will get higher yields (% returns) than others, and there will be an average yield. This will then be announced on the<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbe.org.eg\/en\/Auctions\/Pages\/AuctionsEGPTBills.aspx\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> CBE website.<\/span><\/a><\/p><h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How can I buy them, as an individual?<\/span><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Think about this the same way you\u2019d think about buying a car. There are 2 ways to do this, you can:<\/span><\/p><ol><li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">a) Buy a brand new car from a car dealership (aka primary market)<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">b) Buy a used car, from someone who had already bought it from a car dealership in the past (secondary market).\u00a0<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Treasuries work the same way. Let&#8217;s explore that in more detail:<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Buying treasuries first-hand: Primary market<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">To buy a treasury first hand, think back to the auction we just mentioned. You can participate in the bidding process through your bank. This means you go in not knowing the % return you will get or if your bid will be chosen. Since the auction is what determines the yield (the % return you\u2019ll get).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">You have 2 options here:\u00a0<\/span><\/p><ol><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Place your bid<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014for example, your bid is that you would like to invest EGP 25,000 in a t-bond for a yield of 23%. If your bid falls within the range that the government accepts, your offer will be taken. However, you run the risk of the government not taking your offer, if it is out of their desired range.\u00a0<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Ask to take the average<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014for example, you would like to invest EGP 25,000 in a t-bond, at the average yield that is determined by the auction process. You run the risk of not getting the yield you want but you guarantee that your bid gets accepted. This is because your bid is placed at the average of the government\u2019s chosen yield range.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Buying or selling second-hand: Secondary market<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">After buying a T-bill or T-bond, you can decide to sell it before maturity, on the secondary market (just like a used car). This is done through banks. You can also buy other T-bills and T-bonds this way.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><h5><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Use case: when would I buy secondary?<\/span><\/h5><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Let\u2019s say you have a family trip coming up in 1.5 months. You have some money saved up for the trip that you\u2019d like to make use of until you have to spend it. You don\u2019t have many short term investment options, but imagine you could tailor an investment to mature at the exact time you want. This is almost just that\u2014you can ask for a T-bill or T-bond on the secondary market, with a maturity date that matches your flight.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">All you need to do is visit your bank, and ask them for a T-bill or T-bond with the maturity date that you would like. They will then give you different options on or around the date you\u2019ve requested, and tell you the price of each one.<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Which should I choose\u2014primary or secondary?<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you don\u2019t have a specific maturity date in mind (aka if you dont need the money at a specific date in the near future), it makes more sense to buy a primary treasury. This is because you\u2019re buying it directly from the source, meaning that the fees are lower, and you can get the average yield. However, if you have a specific maturity date in mind (aka you\u2019ll need that money for a trip soon), then it would be better to opt for the secondary market option\u2014since you have more control over the amount of time your money would be tied to that treasury.<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Extra info:<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Auction dates<\/span><\/h4><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bills are offered every week on Sunday (91-day and 273-day) and Thursday (182-day and 364-day)<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bonds are auctioned every Monday<\/span><\/li><\/ul><h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How can I make returns through treasuries?<\/span><\/h3><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bills<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When you buy a T-bill, you are promised to be paid back a certain amount at the end of the period (at the maturity date). The price that you pay for the T-bill is sold at a price that is cheaper than the amount you\u2019ll get at the end of the period (the face value). The difference between those 2 prices are your gains on this investment (also referred to as your yield).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Important note: In Egypt, the face value of each bill is always EGP 100, and you can only buy in multiples of EGP 25k. For example, if you invest the minimum amount of EGP 25k, that would buy 250 bills.<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bonds<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">T-bonds are a bit different from T-bills &#8211; in addition to the payment you get at maturity, you also get a fixed coupon payment, (either once or twice a year).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Eg:: If you have EGP 1000 in a T-bond, and the coupon rate is 20%, your yearly coupon payment will be EGP 200. This could be paid once a year (the full EGP 200), or twice a year (EGP 100, every 6 months).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Important note: In Egypt, the face value of each bond is EGP 1000.<\/span><\/p><h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Pricing: how do their prices move?<\/span><\/h3><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Before we start, who is affected by price changes in treasuries? The people who:<\/span><\/p><ol><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sell their T-bill or T-bond before its maturity date<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Buy a T-bill or T-bond from the secondary market, with a specified maturity date<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In other words, if you will be holding your T-bill or T-bond until maturity, you will not be affected by these price changes. The amount you are promised to be paid at maturity will not change.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ok so let\u2019s assume that you bought a T-bond, with a maturity date that is in 2 months &#8211; and you would like to sell it now. What are the factors that would affect the price of your bond?<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Below are the factors that affect the pricing of a bond, whether that be when it\u2019s first being issued (primary market), or after it has been issued (secondary market):<\/span><\/p><h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1: Changes in interest rates<\/span><\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">There is an inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. In other words, when interest rates go up, bond prices go down, and vice versa.<\/span><\/p><p><b>Interest rate <\/b><b>\ud83d\udc46\ud83c\udffc<\/b><b> Bill\/Bond Price <\/b><b>\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is because coupon rates are fixed. Let\u2019s say the coupon rate is 10%, and interest rates are 10%. If the government decides to increase interest rates to 12%, and this bond offers 10%, that is a return that is lower than the returns you could get at the bank. To compensate for this difference, the bond price becomes cheaper.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-68c2189 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default rt-parallax-bg-no\" data-id=\"68c2189\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fefb6d1\" data-id=\"fefb6d1\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-12d8fd8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"12d8fd8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>ADVANCED:<\/strong> By what degree does a change in interest rates affect the price of my bond? This is what we call <\/span><\/i><b><i>duration.<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Let\u2019s say interest rates increase by 1% and the \u2018duration\u2019 on your bond is 3. That means the price of your bond will decrease by 3%.<\/span><\/i><\/p><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Is this duration \u2018constant\u2019? Will an increase in interest rates always result in a decrease in bond price x3? No &#8211; this is a flaw in the concept of <\/span><\/i><b><i>\u2018duration\u2019<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, it assumes that this relationship is linear.<\/span><\/i><\/p><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In reality, the relationship between interest rates and bond prices is not linear (it actually looks like a curved line). This is what we call <\/span><\/i><b><i>convexity.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2bd3970 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default rt-parallax-bg-no\" data-id=\"2bd3970\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2fb99c4\" data-id=\"2fb99c4\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-040ed93 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"040ed93\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2: Inflation<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When inflation goes up, the purchasing power of your money goes down. This needs to be reflected in bond prices as well, because it wouldn\u2019t make sense for someone to invest their money in a bond that gives returns that are lower than the rate of inflation, unless it is compensated in the bond price.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Inflation rate <\/b><b>\ud83d\udc46\ud83c\udffc<\/b><b> Bill\/Bond Price<\/b><b>\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc<\/b><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3: Default risk<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When a government\u2019s default risk increases (aka their likelihood of being able to pay back their loans), the prices of bonds on the secondary market will go down. This is because less people will be willing to take on that risk with their money. And the people that are willing to take that risk, will demand a higher compensation for that risk, pushing the price down. (This is because the difference between the price and the face value of the treasury is their return).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Default risk <\/b><b>\ud83d\udc46\ud83c\udffc<\/b><b> Bill\/Bond Price <\/b><b>\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc<\/b><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4: Liquidity<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If the demand in the secondary market went down, the prices of t-bills and t-bonds would go down, which would also drive prices down, since there is less liquidity in the market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Demand<\/b><b>\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc<\/b><b> Liquidity <\/b><b>\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc<\/b><b> Bill\/Bond Price<\/b><b>\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc<\/b><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">5: Time To Maturity<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When a bond is closer to its maturity date, it becomes less risky and more likely to pay back its full value. This is because there is less time in between the current date and the maturity date, leaving less room for fluctuations in the market, and therefore less risk. So, the closer the bond is to its maturity date, the more its price will be closer to what it&#8217;s actually worth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8df6fe2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default rt-parallax-bg-no\" data-id=\"8df6fe2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b5abadb\" data-id=\"b5abadb\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-45ad03dc elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default rt-parallax-bg-no\" data-id=\"45ad03dc\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1fe95594\" data-id=\"1fe95594\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3509633c elementor-mobile-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"3509633c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/learn.thndr.app\/how-to-start-budgeting-saving\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-arrow-alt-circle-left\"><\/i>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Previous Post<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1ba938f6\" data-id=\"1ba938f6\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a26a298 elementor-align-right elementor-mobile-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"a26a298\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/learn.thndr.app\/how-to-start-budgeting-saving\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-arrow-alt-circle-right\"><\/i>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Next Post<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What are Treasuries? Think of treasuries as IOUs [I owe you], or promise-to-pay notes from the government. The government borrows money from people, just like you might borrow money from a friend &#8211; and in return, they promise to pay you back with interest on a specific date (aka the maturity date of the treasury). 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