{"id":15207,"date":"2025-11-26T15:10:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T15:10:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/?p=15207"},"modified":"2025-11-26T15:22:56","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T15:22:56","slug":"mcro-arbitrage-opportunity-only-for-those-long-the-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/mcro-arbitrage-opportunity-only-for-those-long-the-stock\/","title":{"rendered":"MCRO: Arbitrage opportunity ONLY for those long the stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cBUY the right, SELL the stock\u201d is how existing MCRO shareholders can use the current mispricing to make a 40% profit, assuming they are in the stock for the long term.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">26 November 2025<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Amr Hussein Elalfy<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this note, we lay down an arbitrage strategy that shareholders in <\/span><\/i><b><i>Macro Group [MCRO]<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> can use to their benefit. MCRO is undergoing an EGP570mn capital increase with the following details:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b><i>Rights trading:<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> From <\/span><\/i><b><i>18 through 30 November 2025<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, after which they will expire.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b><i>Subscription to the capital increase:<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> From <\/span><\/i><b><i>18 November through 3 December 2025 <\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for those who are rights holders.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/18Tk08tITmHY1OrMHsEdul5_RKlOoW9Mg\/edit?usp=sharing&amp;ouid=111991930260430057744&amp;rtpof=true&amp;sd=true\">Here is a link to the arbitrage strategy to apply at market price.<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In sum, for existing MCRO shareholders, here are the decision rules:<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>If the price of MCRO\u2019s<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>is<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>The price of MCRO\u2019s<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>then<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Current status<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>right + 0.20<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>lower than<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>stock<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Buy the right then subscribe<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Active<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">right + 0.20<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">higher than<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">stock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sell the right and buy the stock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inactive<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: Arbitrage should be one right per one share.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Rumble Research<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><strong>How MCRO\u2019s shareholders can benefit<\/strong><\/h1>\n<h2><strong>What happened?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MCRO is currently undergoing an EGP570mn capital increase by issuing 2.85bn shares at a par value of EGP0.20 a share with no issuance fees. Thus, MCRO will be raising its paid-in capital from a current EGP114mn (570mn shares at a par value of EGP0.20\/share) to EGP684mn (3.42bn shares at a par value of EGP0.20\/share).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>MCRO\u2019s capital increase<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>MCRO<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>No. of shares<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Par value (EGP)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Paid-in capital (EGP)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">570,206,456<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 0.20<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 114,041,291<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Subscription<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2,851,032,280<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 0.20<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 570,206,456<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>New<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>3,421,238,736<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>0.20<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 684,247,747<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Company reports, Rumble Research<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>The arbitrage strategy<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In view of the current market prices, we are proposing an arbitrage strategy that is directed at existing MCRO shareholders given that MCRO\u2019s right is currently trading at a deep discount to MCRO\u2019s stock.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Who is it for?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This strategy is only applicable to existing MCRO shareholders who:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Currently own MCRO shares.<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Intend to hold on to their MCRO shares for at least the next 2-3 months.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>MCRO\u2019s tradable rights intrinsic value vs. payoff<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-15221\" src=\"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/MCRO-right-En-2-1-300x125.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"744\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/MCRO-right-En-2-1-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/MCRO-right-En-2-1-1024x426.png 1024w, https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/MCRO-right-En-2-1-768x319.png 768w, https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/MCRO-right-En-2-1-1536x639.png 1536w, https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/MCRO-right-En-2-1.png 2037w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 744px) 100vw, 744px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Rumble Research<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Key price levels to keep in mind<\/strong><\/h3>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>No.<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>MCRO (stock price)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>MCROr (right price)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>MCROr (intrinsic value)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>MCROr (payoff)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Comment<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.620<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.685<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.420<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(0.265)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EGP0.620\/share is the price at which the right produces a negative payoff.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.885<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.685<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.685<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.000<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EGP0.885\/share is the price at which the right produces a zero payoff (break-even).<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>3<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1.260<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>0.685<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1.040<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>0.375<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EGP1.260\/share is yesterday\u2019s market price at which the right produces a positive payoff (i.e. the right is cheaper than the stock).<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Rumble Research<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What are the risks?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, the right is trading at a discount to the stock, so in essence existing MCRO shareholders who are in the stock for the long term can make some money by selling their stock (sell high) then use that money to buy the right (buy low).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, to benefit from this, they need to buy the right at the same time they are selling the stock, so that market fluctuation does not impact the final payoff.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key risk is that MCRO\u2019s stock price is currently trading at a huge premium (more than double) to the independent financial advisor\u2019s (IFA) fair value post-capital increase of EGP0.62\/share. Thus, those opting to hold on to MCRO shares after the rights are exercised face the market risk that MCRO stock price may fall in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is their decision then to either:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sell the stock once the subscription shares are made available in 2-3 months\u2019 time, provided they are profitable.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Continue to be long-term shareholders in the stock.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 24px;\"><b>Investment Disclaimer\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px;\">This document is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction, or to provide any investment advice or service.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px;\">The information used to produce this market commentary is based on sources that Rumble Research (\u201cRumble\u201d) believes to be reliable and accurate. This information has not been independently verified and may be condensed or incomplete. Rumble does not make any guarantee, representation, or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. Expression of opinion contained herein is based on certain assumptions and the use of specific financial techniques that reflect the personal opinions of the authors of the commentary and is subject to change without notice. It is acknowledged that different assumptions can always be made and that the particular technique(s) adopted, selected from a wide range of choices, can lead to a different conclusion. Therefore, all that is stated herein is of an indicative and informative nature, as forward-looking statements, projections, and fair values quoted may not be realized. Accordingly, Rumble does not take any responsibility for decisions made on the basis of the content of this commentary.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px;\">The decision to subscribe to or purchase securities in any offering should not be based on this report and must be based only on public information on such security.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px;\">Recommendations and general guidance are not personal recommendations for any particular investor or client and do not take into account the financial, investment, or other objectives or needs of, and may not be suitable for, any particular investor or client. Investors and clients should consider this only a single factor in making their investment decision, while taking into account the current market environment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px;\">Neither Rumble nor any officer or employee of Rumble accepts liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12px;\">Intellectual Property Rights: No part of this document may be reproduced without the written permission of Rumble. The information within this research report must not be disclosed to any other person if and until Rumble has made the information publicly available.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cBUY the right, SELL the stock\u201d is how existing MCRO shareholders can use the current mispricing to make a 40% profit, assuming they are in the stock for the long term. 26 November 2025 Amr Hussein Elalfy In this note, we lay down an arbitrage strategy that shareholders in Macro Group [MCRO] can use to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":15215,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[255,298],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-product-updates","category---en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15207"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15207\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15231,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15207\/revisions\/15231"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thndr.horizondm.com\/blogpost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}